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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."